March Madness 2026: Which No. 1 seed in the men's NCAA tournament has the easiest road to the championship? Hint: It's not Duke

One of the biggest debates entering Selection Sunday was whether defending national champion Florida deserved a No. 1 seed in the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament. The Gators were humbled by Vanderbilt in the semifinals of the SEC tournament and didn’t look all that great in their victory over Kentucky the previous day.

Florida had struggled early in the season but rebounded to close out the regular season well before entering the SEC tournament. Was it enough to maintain a grip on a No. 1 seed?

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UConn’s loss to St. John’s in the Big East final earlier Sunday tempered any concern the Gators might have had about slipping to the 2-seed line. Instead, not only did Florida get a No. 1 seed, it landed in the South Region — a region that, according to an analysis of KenPom data, could offer the easiest path to the title.

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Fourth-seeded Nebraska would be the easiest Sweet 16 matchup for any of the No. 1 seeds. The bottom half of the South also is noticeably weaker than any of the other regions.

The toughest challenge awaiting Florida could be a rematch of last year’s title game against Houston in the South Region final — which would be played in Houston.

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[Click here for NCAA tournament printable bracket]

East Region top seed KenPom ratings

No. 1 Duke: No. 1 overall; No. 5 offense; No. 1 defense
No. 2 UConn: No. 10 overall; No. 22 offense; No. 23 defense
No. 3 Michigan State: No. 9 overall; No. 27 offense; No. 8 defense
No. 4 Kansas: No. 18 overall; No. 53 offense; No. 10 defense

Midwest Region top seed KenPom ratings

No. 1 Michigan: No. 2 overall; No. 4 offense; No. 3 defense
No. 2 Iowa State: No. 7 overall; No. 23 offense; No. 4 defense
No. 3 Virginia: No. 19 overall; No. 34 offense; No. 16 defense
No. 4 Alabama: No. 15 overall; No. 3 offense; No. 68 defense

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West Region top seed KenPom ratings

No. 1 Arizona: No. 3 overall; No. 7 offense; No. 2 defense
No. 2 Purdue: No. 8 overall; No. 2 offense; No. 39 defense
No. 3 Gonzaga: No. 11 overall; No. 30 offense; No. 11 defense
No. 4 Arkansas: No. 16 overall; No. No. 6 offense; No. 46 defense

South Region top seed KenPom ratings

No. 1 Florida: No. 4 overall; No. 8 offense; No. 5 defense
No. 2 Houston: No. 6 overall; No. 17 offense; No. 6 defense
No. 3 Illinois: No. 5 overall; No. 1 offense; No. 27 defense
No. 4 Nebraska: No. 12 overall; No. 54 offense; No. 7 defense

KenPom ratings for every 2026 tourney team