10 hours ago
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BlackSky Technology (BKSY) just brought its fourth Gen-3 satellite into full service in under a week, giving customers daily 35-centimeter imagery and AI analytics access through its Spectra platform worldwide.
See our latest analysis for BlackSky Technology.
The Gen-3 milestones arrive after a strong run, with BlackSky’s 1-month share price return of 10.01% and 90-day share price return of 34.87% sitting alongside a very large 1-year total shareholder return of 160.24%, even though the latest close is US$23.63 and the 1-day move was a 1.25% decline.
If this kind of space and AI story has your attention, it may be a suitable moment to see what else is out there via our screener of 35 AI infrastructure stocks and compare other potential opportunities.
So with BlackSky trading at US$23.63, sitting on a very large 1 year total return and an indicated 50% intrinsic discount, is there still mispricing here, or is the market already paying up for future growth?
BlackSky's most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $27.29 per share, compared with the latest close at $23.63, which sets up a clear tension between model and market.
The ramp-up of the Gen-3 satellite constellation, coupled with demonstrated high performance and lower costs, is creating strong demand and contract expansion (especially once general availability launches in Q4) and is likely to drive a step-function increase in recurring imagery and analytics revenues in 2025 and beyond.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious what assumptions justify a higher fair value on an unprofitable, high growth satellite operator? Revenue compounding, margin swings, and a punchy future earnings multiple are doing the heavy lifting.
Result: Fair Value of $27.29 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are clear pressure points too, including reliance on government and early access contracts, as well as capital-intensive satellite projects that could strain cash flow and dilute shareholders.
Find out about the key risks to this BlackSky Technology narrative.
Those fair value models paint BlackSky as undervalued, but its P/S of 8x is far ahead of the US Professional Services average of 0.9x, the peer average of 1.6x, and even the 3.2x fair ratio our work suggests the market could move toward. That gap points to real valuation risk if sentiment cools.
